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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still